BMW Luxury Touring Community banner

1 - 12 of 12 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,916 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Has anyone done one of those fancy charts?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,916 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
So what are my odds, with a 1999 LT with 22000 miles on it? You smart ones will give me the date, time, miles that it will fail. :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,651 Posts
Great chart! Lots of good clear info. Thanks for taking the time to produce it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,408 Posts
motorman587 said:
So what are my odds, with a 1999 LT with 22000 miles on it? You smart ones will give me the date, time, miles that it will fail. :)
Easy! (a) when you're riding, and (b) at the worst possible time ... ;)


I hate to say this, but if I had a pre-03, I would not take a long trip without a 17-ball bearing, the large seal, and a pocket torch to heat the bearing for removal in the saddlebag. Stupid that I'd have to, but there you have it.

The failure rate may be statistically low overall, but add in the stress of a fully-packed bike and long periods of high-speed operation, and the frequency of failure goes up significantly (if you look at the failure reports, one conclusion you can extract is that the failures rarely happen to folks just puttering around town on the way to pick up a quart of milk). If I didn't have the cash at hand to just preemptively replace the bearing, I'd wait until the next trip was coming and then buy the parts to pitch into the saddlebag.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,916 Posts
Sooooooooo, I should not plan a trip to Alaska in 2007 on my 1999? :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
182 Posts
mneblett said:
The failure rate may be statistically low overall, but add in the stress of a fully-packed bike and long periods of high-speed operation, and the frequency of failure goes up significantly (if you look at the failure reports, one conclusion you can extract is that the failures rarely happen to folks just puttering around town on the way to pick up a quart of milk). If I didn't have the cash at hand to just preemptively replace the bearing, I'd wait until the next trip was coming and then buy the parts to pitch into the saddlebag.
OK - I got it now. To ensure my drive does not fail I will only ride solo, for short distances, at low speed and never, ever carry any luggage at all. :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,836 Posts
I have to agree with Mark , just change the bearing and be done with it. If you have a catastrophic failure you will need a complete FD replacement . Remember the old Fram oil filter commercial you can pay me now or pay me later . FD replacement $ 850 parts + labor.
Pete
 

·
Bouncer
Joined
·
9,315 Posts
If you have a mechanic you trust, you can spend around $300 and have the bearing replaced with the updated 17-ball bearing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,916 Posts
Discussion Starter #10
BTW cool chart.
 

·
Bouncer
Joined
·
9,315 Posts
Thanks. The survey system also allows you to download the data into a spreadsheet. Once you get the data into Excel, you could do a scatter analysis that took model year, VIN, and mileage at the time of failure.
 
1 - 12 of 12 Posts
Top