Originally Posted by nplenzick
Right now the cost of diesel is killing me as I use a motorhome for my business as a vendor at various MC rallies and shows.
One of the things I'm doing along with the other vendors I've talked to is cutting out all the small shows that are more then 4 hrs from my homebase. This will kill many of the smaller rallies and MC shows but it's no longer cost effective to do them.
It's unlikely gas will get that high in that short period of time as the economy just can't support it. It's approaching it right now. People are cutting back. In fact I met a fellow who delivers gas to gas stations and he's only doing it four days instead of five because of lack of demand in this area.
Some people are looking at wood/pellet stoves and the such here in SE Pa. Some people aren't traveling far or are not taking a vacation this year.
My local MC dealers with the exception of Harley are doing a very good business, scooter sales are strong, and people are trading in their SUV's in droves.
My prediction is that this oil boom will be a somewhat of a bust by mid to late summer as supplies become more then demand. I just hope that the next president really becomes serious about becoming more independent and really cut back big time on our dependents of foreign oil suppliers, something that should have started 30 years ago. If it did we wouldn't be in the mess we're in right now!
As for selling your MH, if you can I'd hold on to it right now. People are only getting pennies on the dollars for them at the the moment.
The 2005 pain point where consumers started reducing their consumption of gasoline was $3.87 per gallon. We saw this right after Katrina. I can't see the pain point going much higher for 2008, but once the pain point is reached, it takes about 2 months for gas to drop more than a buck as inventories begin to stack up and demand drops off.
Barring a hurricane in the refining states like Texas and Louisiana, Iran's sudden declaration of a nuclear weapon, or a Fundamentalist Islamic coup in Saudi Arabia, prices should drop and stabilize just under $3 per gallon soon after demand starts to drop -- which I think will happen in August.
I know my behavior is changing. I can't justify trading the SUV just yet, since even if I got a car that gets 3x the mileage, the ROI takes too long. I was hoping that I'd get a shot for a part in a hydrogen car test, but that fell through.
BTW, start looking at grocery stores that have gas stations. Many of them offer as much as twenty cents per gallon off if you buy a couple hundred bucks of groceries. The Tom Thumb a mile from my house is 12 cents lower than any of the other local stations. My wife and I will buy groceries and fill up both cars with the discount. Sure it's only about $6 saving per fillup, but if we did it all year, it would be more than $300 per year (which is a set of tires, a pair of registrations for CCR, a couple nights at a nice hotel, 3 tanks of gas for my guzzling SUV, etc.)