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post #1 of 36 Old Sep 10th, 2008, 11:08 am Thread Starter
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I'm buying Harley - right now!

Stock, that is.

Shares of HOG have been beaten to a pulp - they've hit rock bottom and don't seem to be willing to go any lower. They've even rebounded a bit over the last week. This freakin' crappy economy can't last that much longer....

Even though I'm not a fan of their bikes I love their merchandising power and brand. I'm a BULL on HOG.

They're a great American company - time to jump on and go for a ride!

(I'll revive this post in six months to see if I'm an idiot)
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post #2 of 36 Old Sep 10th, 2008, 4:12 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

I don't follow HD but I remember a story by a guy in the 1980s who went to buy a HD and was told he'd have to pay in advance and wait 8-10 months for delivery of his bike. He went out and bought HD stock instead of buying a bike and did very well.

I have been saying that selling HD short would be a good idea since the mid-80s, and I have been wrong for almost 20 years.

I continue to be amazed at HD's ability to sell motorcyles. But, the demographics will change at some point. All those of the Boomer generation will eventually have their HD and will age beyond their motorcycle years. And then all those used HDs will hit the market. It has to happen sometime, just a question of when. Maybe the chart you posted reflects a longer term downturn in HD motorcycle sales. Who knows?

Good luck with your position.




Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
Stock, that is.

Shares of HOG have been beaten to a pulp - they've hit rock bottom and don't seem to be willing to go any lower. They've even rebounded a bit over the last week. This freakin' crappy economy can't last that much longer....

Even though I'm not a fan of their bikes I love their merchandising power and brand. I'm a BULL on HOG.

They're a great American company - time to jump on and go for a ride!

(I'll revive this post in six months to see if I'm an idiot)

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post #3 of 36 Old Sep 10th, 2008, 5:23 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

They'll be back up. I've owned Harley stock for the last 15 years and it's been pretty good to me. Prolly buy some more today.

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post #4 of 36 Old Sep 10th, 2008, 8:25 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

And as far as the crappy economy goes, I think it can last a LOT longer......................

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post #5 of 36 Old Sep 11th, 2008, 3:14 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

I am not buying HOG or FLE (Fleetwoood) or any other disposable income type stock.

FYI: NO Insiders have purchased HOG in *years*.
*What do they know that you don't ?

Check this out yourself with your own due dilligence.

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post #6 of 36 Old Sep 11th, 2008, 9:30 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Pick any single stock, without inside information, holding for a short period of time and in general you are gambling. Buy several diversified mutual funds for the long run and you are investing. I basically invested for about 25+ years and was able to retire very early. Do you feel lucky?

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post #7 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 9:41 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dandiver
Pick any single stock, without inside information, holding for a short period of time and in general you are gambling. Buy several diversified mutual funds for the long run and you are investing. I basically invested for about 25+ years and was able to retire very early. Do you feel lucky?
It has nothing to do with luck. I spend half of my day - every day - researching opportunities. I like buying stocks where I understand the underlying business. I "get" Harley 100%.

Mutual funds have had their run, and leaving your money there at this point in time is a sure fire way to see your net worth decrease dramatically. I pulled our 401K's right after the first of the year - I would have taken a major haircut by leaving them there.

From MSNBC today:

Meanwhile, quietly and with little fanfare, investors continue to take money out of mutual funds. This week, there were outflows of $1.3 billion from equity funds (excluding ETFs), according to AMG Data. The represents 14 straight weeks of net redemptions. There have been some weeks where ETF flows were positive, but this category is still largely used by professionals. Bottom line: mutual fund industry continues to shrink.

As far as inside information or "tips" - they are for waiters. If anyone has inside information and spills it they risk going to jail aka Martha Stewart. I NEVER listen to anyone that says they have some sort of pipeline. I do listen to what CEO's have to say about their business since they know it better than anyone else.

We'll see in 6 months...


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post #8 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 9:49 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Trust me, as a former stock broker for Merril Lynch.
NOTHING has hit rock bottom. I would stay away from anykind of stock purchase right now. Your best good night sleep, 2 year CD note.
Wait a year, unless you can afford to loose money.


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post #9 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 9:54 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by usmctpdog
I am not buying HOG or FLE (Fleetwoood) or any other disposable income type stock.

FYI: NO Insiders have purchased HOG in *years*.
*What do they know that you don't ?

Check this out yourself with your own due dilligence.
...and with the way the stock has tanked the last 18 months why would they?

...so what do you think several hundred thousand new motor scooter owners are going to want when they get tired of 100cc's? My bet is that at least 50% of them will walk (not ride since they are too embarrassed ) into a Harley dealership.

Fleetwood is another story and I agree - although they'll adapt and sell plenty of B's and small C's - the big ones (and by far the most profitable) are history. What a horrible business to be in right now.


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post #10 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 10:13 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by stapleford
Trust me, as a former stock broker for Merril Lynch.
NOTHING has hit rock bottom. I would stay away from anykind of stock purchase right now. Your best good night sleep, 2 year CD note.
Wait a year, unless you can afford to loose money.
TWO years at 4.5%? I might as well just give up - or buy a mutual fund and REALLY lose money!

Maybe I'll buy some MER this morning: [MER 17.56 -1.87 (-9.62%

Lots of Lehman guys are saying their final farewells this morning - altbough I don't think MER is a zero so I won't short it.

Also on my shopping list, AIG, WM and my all time favorite: GM. May they all rest in peace. Big fat lying liars - the whole bunch. Everythings just FINE!

(btw, I did just fine shorting Lehman in April when things really started to unravel - thank you berry berry much. I jumped ship last week, maybe a bit soon but I was getting nervous)


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post #11 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 4:23 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Ron,

You obviously take your investing very seriously and it sounds like you put a lot of time into it. Most people don't spend as much time at it as you do and they end up bragging about a few winners and conveniently forget the losers which make up the majority.

I didn't want to put the time into it so I opted for about 5-7 diversified mutual funds that have, over the past 30 years done quite well. I don't loose sleep and now the balances are guaranteed to never be less than a locked in amount. At 59 I can pull 6 1/2 % out for the rest of my life and never run out. Market goes up I participate. If it falls my principal doesn't. For me, much better than having to worry about day to day global activities or individual stocks that leave me feeling like the end of a whip!

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post #12 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 7:00 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

I think you all should call your brokers or get online and buy HOG... the more the merrier...

I am sitting with a basis at about $6.00... and it will more than pay for my next new bike which probably will not be another Harley.

you can join the party too but you have to buy to get the rewards...

New frames for the touring bikes, drive by wire, ABS Brembo brakes... what's not to love?

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post #13 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 8:51 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Sell now, when prices are down? There's a winning strategy. Far better to wait until everything goes back up, then buy. That's the road to riches.

Not all mutual funds are down. Do some research, be a contrarian. Look at Vanguard's inflation protected mutuals, for example.

As far as HD - it's a well run business in a down cycle. Lots of cash, great dealer network, big sales gains in Asia. Now moving into South America.

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post #14 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 8:52 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Whats not to love about a new Harley? (Me after owning about 13 of'em) lets see, for all of you who purchased new before 2009, the 2009's are cheaper by about $800.00 each.

You are still a piece of meat on the BBQ no matter if the rear cylinder is shut down via your drive by wire...

Still does not have a center stand or decent tool kit, not to mention how they decimate the english language with "dripping in Bad" and bringing "additional rudeness and brutality" to the form. (Marketing terminology, not mine)

HD has laid off workers, closed a factory, slimmed down shifts etc..
When this generation of liitle pirates in costumes is gone, so is the air cooled chromed lawn mower.

Kinda reminds me another set of True Believers who gather mightly around and swill the kool Aid.
~~ McCain voters......The trickle down theory did not work for Harley and not for politics either.

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post #15 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 9:19 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by usmctpdog

Kinda reminds me another set of True Believers who gather mightly around and swill the kool Aid,
~~ McCain voters......Trickle down did not work for Harley and not for politics either. *When are you people gonna learn that?
I guess this thread has been hijacked, so....... I don't think I've been drinking Kool-Aid to say I'm probably voting for McCain, It's just, for me, there is not an alternative. I've said this before, by default, I'm voting for the "cream of the crap." I don't like either one!

I think most people would say that all politicians distort the truth, spin information and can't be believed. This goes for both McCain and Obama, so who do you believe? The answer is non of them and you vote for the person with a track record, who surrounds himself with credible advises and not people you fear. Obama is just too new, inexperienced and has way too many people around him who I fear and do not trust, who don't seem to like the United Stares.

Now back to gambling vs investing......

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post #16 of 36 Old Sep 12th, 2008, 10:56 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

To Ron Miller,
You found 4.5% for TWO years?,, wow man, please send me the infor.
I'll throw everything I have into it. Thanks in advance.


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post #17 of 36 Old Sep 13th, 2008, 5:57 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

You can find listings for the highest interest rates offered for jumbo CDs in Investors Business Daily, usually the Friday edition. Be careful - the high interest rates are usually offered by banks that aren't necessarily the most stable institutions. Rates above 4% are common for jumbo CDs.

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post #18 of 36 Old Sep 13th, 2008, 9:45 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by stapleford
To Ron Miller,
You found 4.5% for TWO years?,, wow man, please send me the infor.
I'll throw everything I have into it. Thanks in advance.
www.Bankrate.com. Things change every minute - I saw a California Bank two weeks ago offering 5% for a year. There's one at Comerica currently for 4% a year. I like this one: Indy Mac has a 7 month for 4.15%.

While absolutely safe, you're just parking your funds and more or less keeping up with inflation...

That's not necessarily a bad thing in this totally whacked market!


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post #19 of 36 Old Sep 13th, 2008, 9:48 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike_H
You can find listings for the highest interest rates offered for jumbo CDs in Investors Business Daily, usually the Friday edition. Be careful - the high interest rates are usually offered by banks that aren't necessarily the most stable institutions. Rates above 4% are common for jumbo CDs.
Boy Howdy - ain't that the truth. We're gonna' see tons of smaller banks go down.

However, as long as you don't park more than $100K in any one bank FDIC protects fully. Amazing how many people got burned when Indy Mac collapsed since they stashed ALL their money there.


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post #20 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 1:49 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
Stock, that is.

Shares of HOG have been beaten to a pulp - they've hit rock bottom and don't seem to be willing to go any lower. They've even rebounded a bit over the last week. This freakin' crappy economy can't last that much longer....

Even though I'm not a fan of their bikes I love their merchandising power and brand. I'm a BULL on HOG.

They're a great American company - time to jump on and go for a ride!

(I'll revive this post in six months to see if I'm an idiot)
Ron -
How about six weeks? Truly unbelievable....if you liked it at $41 it's even better at $24.

Please don't take this post personally - my intent is only to dramatize what has happened to our financial markets, and the SPEED in which it has happened.

Your post on September 10 and those who commented has become a time-capsule to a place we will probably never see the likes of for a long time to come.

And, kudos to "stapleford" - hope you followed your gut in time!

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post #21 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 8:01 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Each to his or her own. I really believe that the success of the Harley Brand has been based on values which will be less and less viable in a world which is becoming smaller and smaller.

When I buy a stock these days I ask myself whether I believe that company will be in business 20 years from now and whether their product or service looks to the future or back at the past. What is that company's ability to adapt? Using such criteria, Harley gets cut from my list as long as they sell Macho, chauvinism a stated disregard for fuel economy and true technical innovation.

If Ford and GM adapt the strategy of Harley and engineer their products to mimic products from "the good old days" they too will fail.
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post #22 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 8:48 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Doesn't this happen every four years and really dip every eight years? It seems like every election makes things go bad and when it's no one up for re-election and there are two new folks running, the whole country takes a big dip.

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post #23 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 9:43 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted
Ron -
How about six weeks? Truly unbelievable....if you liked it at $41 it's even better at $24.

Please don't take this post personally - my intent is only to dramatize what has happened to our financial markets, and the SPEED in which it has happened.

Your post on September 10 and those who commented has become a time-capsule to a place we will probably never see the likes of for a long time to come.

And, kudos to "stapleford" - hope you followed your gut in time!
No worries....

I was waiting to see an uptick in HOG to 42 and BOY HOWDY am I glad I didn't buy. Whew... I still love HOG and think it is a phenomenal brand - and they'll be baaacckkk - but they're just not right for this time.

I've been darned lucky lately - I freaked out on the 8th and went to all cash. When I can't sleep..... I still can't figure out why gold isn't at $1200.00. I guess it has to do with inflation fears subsiding. It's the only thing I've felt any pain with for the past several weeks.

I just jumped back in again this morning with 30% of my portfolio in XOM, MSFT and IEP (Icahn Enterprises). I'm also liking ADP and KHD but will wait a while.

I'm on the hunt for world dominating brands that have lots of cash and are heavily discounted. To me this is a once in a lifetime chance.


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post #24 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 10:27 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
I still can't figure out why gold isn't at $1200.00.
I know - or more...Must be the market is flooded with too much "scrap gold" (those commercials kill me!).

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post #25 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 11:08 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
....I do listen to what CEO's have to say about their business since they know it better than anyone else....
WTF? Like the CEO's of Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Washington Mutual, Bear-Sterns, etc, etc, AND such noted economic leaders as McSenile, THE Messiah, The EVIL W, speaker Pelosi, the treasury secretary and the fed chairman, etc, etc?!

Ron, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your seat advice is far better than your investing advice!

"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." (Some really OLD friggin' White dude who couldn't have possibly known what he was talking about!) WARNING: Official HATE speech!
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post #26 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 11:50 am Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

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WTF? Like the CEO's of Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Washington Mutual, Bear-Sterns, etc, etc, AND such noted economic leaders as McSenile, THE Messiah, The EVIL W, speaker Pelosi, the treasury secretary and the fed chairman, etc, etc?!

Ron, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your seat advice is far better than your investing advice!
Well, if you would have been with me on October 8th you wouldn't have lost a nickle. My 401K and IRA (and my wife's) are intact and healthy. It was either dumb luck or my Spidey Sense tingling. Maybe intuition. The knot in my stomach. Whatever... probably dumb luck!

Believe it or not there are still a few good CEO's out there that actually are honest - and, this is really hard to believe - have their shareholder's interests in mind FIRST.

Guys like Robert Toll of Toll Brothers. He is a breath of fresh air. (even though I don't own his company - it's a stretch to think that home builders are going to be doing anything until current inventory is worked down.)

Even though Carl Icahn is a curmudgeon and not very likable guy, he tells it like it is and doesn't put up with any crap from the CEO's of the companies he owns. He owns 92% of the common and preferred shares. He's the one that wants to get the stock price up as much as I do, and he's the one that can influence that more than anyone. (up 11% since this morning...)

I'm a fan of Jim Tisch of Loew's. Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway. I could go on and on. There ARE still a lot of decent CEO's and companies to buy, and yep, I LOVE bear markets.

I guess what I don't understand is all the closed door meetings within the bank of Ben and Hank. If the taxpayer's money is involved with this insane bailout - why can't we have access to what is being said? As the saying goes: "Enquiring minds want to know". Seems to me it's just business as usual in the smoke filled room. Except this time its smoke and mirrors.

PS., they should put EVERY ONE OF THE FORMER OFFICERS OF AIG IN JAIL. Those lying bastards had larceny in their heart from the get go. Assholes.


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post #27 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 2:19 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

20 years ago when I got into the Fidelity Magellan it was a good standard for those of us that like to take the lazy way. I haven't dared to even open the envelopes that sit on my desk now. I did open a window to my office and jump the other day....

unfortunately, I live in a one story house.



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post #28 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 5:11 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

HOG did 7% up today. Hope you bought some.
Got any other picks?


Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
Stock, that is.

Shares of HOG have been beaten to a pulp - they've hit rock bottom and don't seem to be willing to go any lower. They've even rebounded a bit over the last week. This freakin' crappy economy can't last that much longer....

Even though I'm not a fan of their bikes I love their merchandising power and brand. I'm a BULL on HOG.

They're a great American company - time to jump on and go for a ride!

(I'll revive this post in six months to see if I'm an idiot)
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post #29 of 36 Old Oct 16th, 2008, 6:14 pm Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieVT
HOG did 7% up today. Hope you bought some.
Got any other picks?
Did not buy HOG, but I'm very pleased with what I DID buy this morning:

XOM, (up 11.39%) MSFT (up 6.75%) and IEP -Icahn Enterprises - (up 14.36%)

My day trading days are over - the market is SO rigged with short sellers.

For me its time to burrow in with some serious World Dominators that have tons of cash and are 50% off. They can wait this whole scenario out and still come out the other end looking good.

Or so I think...

Breathe in, breathe out.


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post #30 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 9:06 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

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Originally Posted by RonKMiller
....they should put [i][b]EVERY ONE OF THE FORMER OFFICERS OF AIG IN JAIL....
Yyeeeeaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Now that's something that government COULD DO that would be effective--as opposed to throwing ONE TRILLION DOLLARS at bad investments and bad companies.

"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." (Some really OLD friggin' White dude who couldn't have possibly known what he was talking about!) WARNING: Official HATE speech!
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post #31 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 10:52 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Check out GE. I bought at $19 a share, the dividend alone is worth about 6%.

Life happens...you control your reaction.

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post #32 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 10:55 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

oh.. you apparently haven't seen the latest from HD...

Hungover Dog.

...............
J.M.J...
Dcn Channing

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post #33 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 11:38 am
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

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Originally Posted by pickerbiker
Check out GE. I bought at $19 a share, the dividend alone is worth about 6%.
That sounds good, but check out GE's total debt as of December 31, 2007. Suggest you be sitting down when you do.

Copied from GE's site: Borrowings amounted to $514.1 billion at December 31, 2007, compared with $432.8 billion at the end of 2006.

Lee Nowell
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Last edited by lnowell; Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:49 am. Reason: Added info.
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post #34 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 5:34 pm Thread Starter
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnowell
That sounds good, but check out GE's total debt as of December 31, 2007. Suggest you be sitting down when you do.

Copied from GE's site: Borrowings amounted to $514.1 billion at December 31, 2007, compared with $432.8 billion at the end of 2006.


I'm not only sitting down - I'm flat on my back sucking wind and dialing 711!

That's the new shortcut number for the bank of Ben and Hank - they're always there when you need them - just ask AIG!


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post #35 of 36 Old Oct 17th, 2008, 9:43 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

They have major investments in alternative energy. Why not borrow when money is cheap?

Life happens...you control your reaction.

2017 KTM 350 EXC-F (single track monster)
2018 Honda CRF250L Rally (fun on the fire roads)
2015 R1200 RT (holy cow…what a bike)
2007 K1200 LT (sold)
2005 DR 650 (sold)
2002 Harley Ultra (sold)
1999 Harley Road King (sold)
1996 K1100 LT (sold)
1990 Honda Shadow (sold)
1978-1993 Raising Kids; Paying Mortgages
1975 Honda CB550 (sold but wish I still had)
Homemade Motor Bike (mounted a 3.5 HP Briggs & Stratton on my bicycle at age 12)
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post #36 of 36 Old Oct 18th, 2008, 1:38 pm
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Re: I'm buying Harley - right now!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKMiller
....That's the new shortcut number for the bank of Ben and Hank....
Hey Ron is that bank like my bank--where the special LUBE is always free?!

"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." (Some really OLD friggin' White dude who couldn't have possibly known what he was talking about!) WARNING: Official HATE speech!
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